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Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply

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  • Marga Peeters

Abstract

Due to its pyramid population structure, Egypt needs to create jobs at a high pace to absorb the many new entrants at its labour market. This article structurally models and quantifies the impact of these demographic shocks and the shedding of public sector jobs on unemployment. The findings indicate that Egypt needs to grow at 5% for many years to come. Job creation better occurs in the private than in the public sector. Egypt’s public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the numerous public sector employees but also because of high public wage growth.

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File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/jee/JEE_2011_02_03.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its journal Journal of Economics and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 54 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 58-92

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Handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:54:y:2011:i:2:p:58-92

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Related research

Keywords: Demography; labour supply; employment; public sector employment; public finance.;

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References

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  1. L. de Haan & A. Naumovska & H.M.M. Peeters, 2001. "MAKMODEL: a macroeconometric model for the Republic of Macedonia," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 665, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Assaad, Ragu & El-Hamidi, Fatma & Ahmed, Akhter U., 2000. "The determinants of employment status in Egypt," FCND briefs 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Herrera, Santiago & Youssef, Hoda & Youssef, Hoda & Zaki, Chahir, 2010. "Egypt beyond the crisis : medium-term challenges for sustained growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5451, The World Bank.
  5. Gregory, Robert G. & Borland, Jeff, 1999. "Recent developments in public sector labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 53, pages 3573-3630 Elsevier.
  6. Demertzis, Maria & Van Els, Peter & Grob, Sybille & Peeters, Marga, 2006. "EUROMON: The multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," MPRA Paper 28512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Klein, Lawrence R, 1969. "Estimation on Interdependent Systems in Macroeconometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 171-92, April.
  8. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  9. Groot, Loek & Peeters, Marga, 2011. "A global view on demographic pressure and labour market participation," MPRA Paper 32057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India," CAMA Working Papers 2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Binzel, Christine & Assaad, Ragui, 2011. "Egyptian Men Working Abroad: Labor Supply Responses by the Women Left Behind," IZA Discussion Papers 5589, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Peeters, Marga, 2012. "Asymmetric demographic pressure in South-Mediterranean versus North-Mediterranean economies and its impact on international gross capital flows," MPRA Paper 39635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Peeters, Marga & Sabri, Nidal Rachid, 2012. "International financial integration of Mediterranean economies : A bird’s-eye view," MPRA Paper 38081, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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