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Abstract

This article uses the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) to assess the impact of fiscal consolidation on the Czech economy. Its contribution is threefold. First, it provides estimates of dynamic fiscal multipliers for a variety of fiscal instruments (tax and expenditure), consolidation durations, assumptions about credibility, and monetary policy responses. Second, the article evaluates the impact on the economy of tightening measures envisaged in the 2011 budget. Third, the article considers alternative packages for consolidation beyond 2011 to achieve the government’s balanced budget target by 2016 and identifies which forms of adjustment are more “growth-friendly.”

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 306-326

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:61:y:2011:i:4:p:306-326

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal multipliers; fiscal consolidation; fiscal policy; general equilibrium models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
• H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

References

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1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
   
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2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
3. Taylor, John B., 2010. "Comment on: "Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis" by Charles Freedman, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Dick Muir, Susanna Mursula," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 527-530, July.
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   • Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
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   • Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
7. Christophe Kamps, 2004. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960-2001," IMF Working Papers 04/67, International Monetary Fund.
   
   • Christophe Kamps, 2006. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 6.
   • Christophe Kamps, 2005. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960-2001," Public Economics 0506015, EconWPA.
8. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA.
   
   • Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
9. Freedman, Charles & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Mursula, Susanna, 2010. "Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 506-526, July.
10. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) - Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.

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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Serbanoiu, Georgian Valentin, 2012. "Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy," MPRA Paper 40947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
2. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
3. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký, 2012. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shocks On The Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust Is The Fiscal Stance Of The Czech Republic?," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(6), pages 723-742.
4. Jan Hagemejer & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2011. "Fiscal tightening after the crisis. A scenario analysis for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 42(3), pages 33-66.
5. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky?
   [The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust is," MPRA Paper 39761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
6. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Pavel Soukup, 2012. "Fiscal Discretion in the Czech Republic in 2001-2011: Has It Been Stabilizing?," Research and Policy Notes 2012/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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