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Fiscal deficits and current account deficits

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  • Kumhof, Michael
  • Laxton, Douglas

Abstract

Recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50% of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75% for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100% for a small open economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 2062-2082

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:10:p:2062-2082

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Non-Ricardian households; Government deficits; Government debt; Global current account imbalances;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. G�nter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & Ren� Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lind� & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Ca, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 10/121, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2013. "Fiscal deficits and current account deficits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2062-2082.
  4. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
  5. Werner Schule, 2010. "The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 10/128, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "External imbalances and macroeconomic policy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 53-70, April.
  7. Michael Kumhof & Daniel Leigh & Douglas Laxton, 2010. "To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast?," IMF Working Papers 10/199, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Freedman, Charles & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Mursula, Susanna, 2010. "Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 506-526, July.
  9. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.

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