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Simple fiscal policy rules for small open economies

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  • Kumhof, Michael
  • Laxton, Douglas

Abstract

This paper analyzes the scope for rules-based countercyclical fiscal policy in small open economies where a subset of households is liquidity-constrained. Relative to balanced budget rules, structural surplus rules significantly improve welfare. But they minimize fiscal instrument volatility rather than business cycle volatility. More aggressively countercyclical tax revenue gap rules (strong automatic stabilizers) increase welfare gains by around 50%, with only modest increases in fiscal instrument volatility. If liquidity-constrained households' labor income is independent of raw materials prices, the government should save excess raw materials revenue on their behalf. The best fiscal instruments are transfers, consumption and labor taxes.

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  • Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2013. "Simple fiscal policy rules for small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:91:y:2013:i:1:p:113-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.05.002
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    4. Galego Mendes,Arthur & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "One Rule Fits All ? Heterogeneous Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters When Price Shocks Can BePersistent: Theory and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9400, The World Bank.
    5. Stefan Hohberger & Lukas Vogel & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "The sectoral reallocation of government purchases as budgetary-neutral stabilisation tool: a model-based analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 59-74, March.
    6. Díaz-Kovalenko, Igor E. & Torres, José L., 2022. "Oil price shocks, government revenues and public investment: The case of Ecuador," MPRA Paper 112268, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2022.
    7. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
    8. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    9. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    10. Martinez, Andrew & Schibuola, Alex, 2021. "The Expectations Gap: An Alternative Measure of Economic Slack," Working Papers 11284, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    11. Wei Dong & Geoffrey Dunbar & Christian Friedrich & Dmitry Matveev & Romanos Priftis & Lin Shao, 2021. "Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review," Discussion Papers 2021-4, Bank of Canada.
    12. Iyer, Tara, 2020. "The welfare implications of exchange rate choices in developing agricultural economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Mikhail Andreyev & Mikhail Andreyev & Mikhail Andreyev, 2020. "Adding a fiscal rule into a DSGE model: How much does it change the forecasts?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps64, Bank of Russia.
    14. Martha López Pineros, 2020. "Fiscal Multipliers and Balance Sheet Effects in a Small Open Economy," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 23(2), pages 1-42, December.
    15. Debrun, Xavier & Jonung, Lars, 2019. "Under threat: Rules-based fiscal policy and how to preserve it," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 142-157.
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    17. Galego Mendes,Arthur & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2017. "Consumption smoothing and shock persistence : optimal simple fiscal rules for commodity exporters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8035, The World Bank.
    18. Martha López, 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers, Oil Revenues and Balance Sheet Effects," Borradores de Economia 976, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Loayza,Norman V. & Galego Mendes,Arthur & Mendez Ramos,Fabian & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2022. "Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth : An Extension of the World Bank LongTerm Growth Model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9965, The World Bank.

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