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Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model

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Author Info
Bayoumi, Tamim
Sgherri, Silvia

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Abstract

We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5839.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5839

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Related research
Keywords: discount rates; fiscal multipliers; fiscal policy; Ricardian equivalence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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  6. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marina Benedetti, 2005. "Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," CSEF Working Papers 142, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "On the Impact of Income and Policy Shocks on Consumption," DNB Working Papers 152, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances: Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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