When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?
AbstractWe examine when government debt crowds out investment for the U.S. economy using an estimated New Keynesian model with a detailed fiscal specification. The estimation accounts for the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies. Whether private investment is crowded in or out in the short term depends on the fiscal or monetary shock that triggers a debt expansion: Higher debt can crowd in investment despite a higher real interest rate for a reduction in capital tax rates or an increase in productive government investment. Contrary to the conventional view of crowding out, no systematic relationship among debt, the real interest rate, and investment exists. This result offers an explanation as to why empirical studies that have focused on the reduced-form relationship between interest rates and debt are often inconclusive. At longer horizons, distortionary financing is important for the negative investment response to a debt expansion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 479.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004.
"On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models,"
2004-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2005. "On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 0491, European Central Bank.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2003.
"Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?,"
03-43, Bank of Canada.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 417, Econometric Society.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 20, Society for Computational Economics.
- Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005.
"Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory,"
NBER Working Papers
11212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004.
"Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the U.S. Business Cycle,"
NBER Working Papers
10724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the US Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2005. "An estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 84, Society for Computational Economics.
- Eric M. Leeper & Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2009.
"Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
15160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Colciago, Andrea, 2005.
"Rule of Thumb Consumers Meet Sticky Wages,"
3275, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Apr 2007.
- King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990.
"Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium,"
RCER Working Papers
244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Jones, John Bailey, 2002.
"Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
- John Bailey Jones, 1999. "Has Fiscal Policy Helped Stabilize the Postwar U.S. Economy?," Discussion Papers 99-03, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Alvarez-Lois, Pedro & Harrison, Richard & Piscitelli, Laura & Scott, Alasdair, 2008. "On the application and use of DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2428-2452, August.
- Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Are Government Activities Productive? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 1-11, February.
- Sarah Zubairy, 2010. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model," Working Papers 10-30, Bank of Canada.
- Shu-Chun S. Yang & Nora Traum, 2010.
"Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-war U.S,"
IMF Working Papers
10/243, International Monetary Fund.
- Traum, Nora & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 140-164, January.
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2013.
"Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations,"
13-26, Bank of Canada.
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell B. Leith, 2012. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," NBER Working Papers 17844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2012. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers 2012_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Bi, Huixin & Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell, 2012. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-09, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Aliya Algozhina, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Emerging Open Economy: a Non-Ricardian DSGE Approach," FIW Working Paper series 094, FIW, revised Dec 2012.
- Cloyne, J.S., 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Open Access publications from University College London http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Müller, Ulrich K., 2012. "Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 581-597.
- Shu-Chun S. Yang & Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper, 2010.
"Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus,"
IMF Working Papers
10/229, International Monetary Fund.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2012.
"Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows,"
IMF Working Papers
12/153, International Monetary Fund.
- Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," NBER Working Papers 17444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.