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Three Current Account Balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation

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  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Jaewoo Lee

Abstract

Three large current account imbalances -- one deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) -- are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U.S. current account deficit (nearly 2 percentage points of the 2004 deficit of 5 1/2 percent of GDP) will undergo an adjustment process that involves real depreciation in its exchange rate. For Japan, a little more than 1 percentage point (of GDP) of the current account surplus is found to require an exchange rate movement (real appreciation) as the surpluses adjust down. For the Euro area, less than half a percentage point of its current account surplus is found to require an adjustment via real appreciation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11853.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Publication status: published as Chinn, Menzie D. & Lee, Jaewoo, 2009. "Three current account balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" interpretation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 202-212, March.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11853

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  1. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2007. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 283-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "Transfer Effect in National Price Levels," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 534-556, October.
  2. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations," Discussion Papers 2011/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  3. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00493384 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Mohamed Arouri & Arif Billah Dar & Niyati Bhanja & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & FrédéricTeulon, 2014. "Interlinkage between Real Exchange rate and Current Account Behaviors: Evidence from India," Working Papers 2014-088, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  5. Charles Engel, 2010. "Exchange rate policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 229-250 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Fundamentals At Odds? T+L4130he U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Dollar," IMF Working Papers 08/260, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," 2007 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2008. "Fundamentals at Odds? The US Current Account Deficit and The Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 7046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Rodrigo Valdés P. & Kevin Cowan L. & Sebastián Edwards F., 2007. "Current Account and External Financing," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 5-18, December.
  10. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-00493384 is not listed on IDEAS

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