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The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies

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  • Barrdear, John
  • Kumhof, Michael

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic consequences of issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC) - a universally-accessible and interest-bearing central bank liability that competes with bank deposits as medium of exchange. In a DSGE model calibrated to match the pre-2008 US, we find that CBDC issuance of 30% of GDP, against government bonds, could permanently raise GDP by 3%, due to lower real interest rates, distortionary taxes, and monetary transaction costs. Countercyclical CBDC policy rules, as a second monetary policy tool, could substantially improve the central bank’s ability to stabilise the business cycle. Risks to banks can be minimized through appropriate issuance arrangements.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2022. "The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:142:y:2022:i:c:s016518892100083x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104148
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    2. Constanza Martínez-Ventura & Julián A. Parra-Polania & Tatiana Mora-Arbeláez & Angélica Lizarazo-Cuéllar, 2023. "Expected Macroeconomic Effects of Issuing a Retail CBDC," Borradores de Economia 1247, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Dirk Niepelt, 2022. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Diskussionsschriften dp2212, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    4. Keister, Todd & Monnet, Cyril, 2022. "Central bank digital currency: Stability and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    6. Wang, Zhan-ao & Samuel, Ribeiro-Navarrete & Chen, Xiao-qian & Xu, Bing & Huang, Wei-lun, 2023. "Central bank digital currencies: Consumer data-driven sustainable operation management policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Burlon, Lorenzo & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Smets, Frank, 2022. "The optimal quantity of CBDC in a bank-based economy," Working Paper Series 2689, European Central Bank.
    8. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Katrin Assenmacher & Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Arnaud Mehl & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2024. "Managing the transition to central bank digital currency," Working Papers 803, DNB.
    10. Danny Hermawan Adiwibowo & Aryo Sasongko & Denny Lie, 2022. "Money Velocity, Digital Currency, And Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers WP/13/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    11. Magin, Jana Anjali & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of different CBDC regimes in an economy with a heterogeneous household sector," DICE Discussion Papers 396, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    12. Luzie Thiel & Jochen Michaelis, 2023. "Digitales Zentralbankgeld: Warum wagt niemand den ersten Schritt?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202315, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. David Cerezo S'anchez, 2022. "Zero-Knowledge Optimal Monetary Policy under Stochastic Dominance," Papers 2210.06139, arXiv.org.
    14. Nipun Agarwal & Pornpit Wongthongtham & Neerajkumari Khairwal & Kevin Coutinho, 2023. "Blockchain Application to Financial Market Clearing and Settlement Systems," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1012-1035, December.
    16. Fuchs Max & Michaelis Jochen, 2023. "Is a Secondary Currency Essential? – On the Welfare Effects of a New Currency," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(2), pages 153-167, April.
    17. Magin, Jana & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Different CBDC Regimes in an Economy with a Heterogeneous Household Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277656, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Solikin M. Juhro & Denny Lie & Atet Rizki Wijoseno & Mohammad Aly Fikry, 2022. "Fiscal Policy Stance, Central Bank Digital Currency, And The Optimal Monetary-Macroprudential Policy Mix," Working Papers WP/01/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    19. Christoph Frei & Qianhong Huang, 2023. "Traditional and digital currencies in over-the-counter markets," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 4, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank digital currency; Money creation; Money demand; Endogenous money; Banks; Financial intermediation; Bank lending; Distributed ledgers; Blockchain; Countercyclical policy; Seigniorage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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