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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

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  • Jan Babecky
  • Ales Bulir
  • Katerina Smidkova

Abstract

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample of new EU member countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have a profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions may experience sustainable appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2011/01.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/01

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Keywords: Foreign direct investment; Great Recession; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  2. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
  3. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, August.

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