Tatiana Fic (National Bank of Poland) Ray Barrell (National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London) Dawn Holland (National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London)
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New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, surrounding the determination of the optimal exchange rate. In effect, the probability of misalignment of the entry rate can be a non-zero one. Given the possible - if not inevitable - misspecification of the equilibrium rate it is thus advisable to focus on the effects of a misalignment of the entry rate for the economy, as it has implications for countries’ both real and nominal convergence. An overvalued exchange rate would have an adverse impact on a country’s competitiveness and its growth, while an undervalued currency would contribute to an overheating of the economy and an excessive inflation. The objective of this paper is to better understand the role of the entry rates for short run inflation and GDP developments and their implications for the inflation criterion and the real convergence process. Having estimated equilibrium exchange rates for the eight out of ten countries that entered the EU in May 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia we conduct simulations showing what their adjustments to equilibrium would be if their entry rates deviated from the optimal ones.
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Paper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
14.