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The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries

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  • Arratibel, Olga
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Martin, Reiner
  • Zdzienicka, Aleksandra

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU member states. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. At the same time, the recent evidence seems to suggest that following the global financial crisis, "hard peg" countries may have experienced a more severe adjustment process than "floaters". The results are economically and statistically significant and robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 261-277

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:261-277

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Keywords: EU Exchange rate volatility Growth FDI Credit Current account;

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Cited by:
  1. Ghiba, Nicolae, 2010. "Efecte ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra exporturilor
    [Effects of exchange rate volatility on exports]
    ," MPRA Paper 28448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Furceri, Davide & Guichard, Stéphanie & Rusticelli, Elena, 2012. "The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-344.
  3. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Current Account Adjustments and Real Exchange Rates in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 48901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Halmi Mirela, 2012. "The Correlation Between The Exchange Rate And The Direct Foreign Investments," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 809-815, July.
  5. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries," MPRA Paper 40910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2013. "Real Output and Prices Adjustments under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," Chapters of Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy book, in: Rajmund Mirdala (ed.), Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 208-230 ASERS Publishing.

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