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A model of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Zealand and Australian dollar

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Abstract

This paper extends the `Five Area Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rate' (FABEER) model used in Wren-Lewis (2003) to include New Zealand and Australia. This model calculates medium term exchange rates conditional on assumptions for `sustainable' current accounts. The model suggests that the equilibrium value of both currencies has been declining over the last ten years and that both currencies were near fair value (on average) during 2002. Equilibrium values against the US dollar are estimated to be around 0.50 (New Zealand) and 0.59 (Australia), although these estimates are sensitive to the assumed equilibrium values for variables like commodity prices and the current account.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2004/dp04_07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP 2004/07.

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Length: 33 p.
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2004/07

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  1. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  2. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2001. "PPP-based analysis of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  4. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2005. "Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 101-112, 06.
  5. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  6. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2000. "A macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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Cited by:
  1. Anella Munro, 2005. "UIP, Expectations and the Kiwi," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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