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Australia’s Medium-run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach

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  • Nikola Dvornak

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Marion Kohler

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Gordon Menzies

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

We analyse the determinants of Australia’s exchange rate in terms of the approach introduced by Williamson (1983), based on the simultaneous attainment of internal and external balance. Internal balance implies that the economy is operating at its supply potential with no inflationary pressures. External balance is characterised as the sustainable net flow of resources (corresponding to a current account to GDP ratio) between countries when they are in internal balance. The approach provides estimates of the medium-term exchange rate associated with a given current account position, although the estimates are highly sensitive to variations in key parameters.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2003-03.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2003-03

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Keywords: current account; equilibrium exchange rates; terms of trade;

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References

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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, September.
  3. Gordon Menzies, 1994. "Explaining the Timing of Australia's Manufactured Export Boom," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 27(4), pages 72-86.
  4. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  7. Wilkinson, Jenny, 1992. "Explaining Australia's Imports: 1974-1989," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(201), pages 151-64, June.
  8. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Luci Ellis, 2001. "Measuring the Real Exchange Rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Hali J. Edison & Francis Vitek, 2009. "Australia and New Zealand Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 09/7, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2004. "A model of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Zealand and Australian dollar," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Tim Atkin & Ellis Connolly, 2013. "Australian Exports: Global Demand and the High Exchange Rate," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 1-10, June.
  4. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2007. "Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2008. "Current Account Deficits: Tha Australian Debate," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 13, pages 491-535 Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Hali Edison & Francis Vitek, 2009. "Exchange rate assessments for Australia and New Zealand," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 155-176, May.
  7. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2007. "Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 450, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Gordon D. Menzies, 2005. "Who'S Afraid Of The Marshall-Lerner Condition?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 24(4), pages 309-315, December.
  9. David Norman, 2006. "Modelling Manufactured Exports: Evidence from Australian States," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.

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