Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alper, Ahmet Murat
  • Civcir, İrfan

Abstract

This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the Turkish lira to evaluate whether or not the overvaluation results in currency crisis and low growth rate over the period from the first quarter of 1987 to the fourth quarter of 2010. We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, where the equilibrium real exchange rate depends on both the balance of payments approach and the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. The results indicate that although large and persistent overvaluation contributes to a crisis in Turkey, a relatively small overvaluation, contrary to both the Washington Consensus view and the Rodrik view, promotes the growth of Turkish economy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893811001074
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 112-131

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:112-131

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate; Behavioral equilibrium exchange rate; Misalignment; Turkey;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Achy, Lahcen, 2001. "Equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment In selected MENA countries," MPRA Paper 4799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  2. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López, 1999. "Internal and External Exchange Rate Equilibrium in a Cointegration Framework. An Application to the Spanish Peseta," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9916, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  4. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  5. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/271, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  9. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  10. Enrique Alberola, 2003. "Misalignment, liabilities dollarization and exchange rate adjustment in Latin America," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0309, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Irfan Civcir, 2002. "Before The Fall Was The Turkish Lira Overvalued?," Working Papers 0220, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2002.
  12. Stein, Jerome L., 1990. "The real exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1045-1078, November.
  13. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp781, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Sengül Dagdeviren & Ayla Ogu? Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Misalignment Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: the Case of Turkey," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 81-98.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  16. Strauss, Jack, 1996. "The cointegrating relationship between productivity, real exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 299-313.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  18. Alberola, Enrique & Lopez, Humberto & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Tango with the Gringo: the hard peg and real misalignment in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3322, The World Bank.
  19. Deniz Atasoy & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira," International Finance 0508002, EconWPA.
  20. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  21. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  22. Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Productivity differentials, the relative price of non-tradables and real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-409.
  23. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  24. K. Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Ahmet Yucel, 2002. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1807-1812.
  25. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  26. Fabella, Raul V., 1996. "The debt-adjusted real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 475-484, June.
  27. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  28. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  29. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  30. Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Frait, Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2008. "The Debt-adjusted Real Exchange Rate for China," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 850, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  33. Frait, Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2002. "Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of The Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate In Selected Transition Economies During 1994-2001," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 646, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  34. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
  35. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lopcu, Kenan & Dülger, Fikret & Burgaç, Almıla, 2013. "Relative productivity increases and the appreciation of the Turkish lira," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 614-621.
  2. Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "A Simple Model and Its Application in the Valuation of Five Asian Real Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 40953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2013. "A New Assessment of the Chinese RMB Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 49315, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:112-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.