The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate under High Inflation -The case of the Turkish Lira/US Dollar
AbstractThis paper applies the Johansen cointegration technique to examine the validity of the monetary model of exchange-rate determination as an explanation of the Turkish lira/United States dollar relationship over the 1987:1?2000:12 period. A single cointegrating vector is identified whose coefficients conform in broad terms to the restrictions implied by the monetary model, thus lending support to the interpretation of the model as describing a long-run equilibrium relationship. This support is reinforced by the results derived from the adjustment coefficient, which identify a clear short-run tendency of the exchange rate to revert to the equilibrium value defined by the estimated long-run model. After finding support for the long-run monetary model, we calculate misalignment from the estimated long-run relationship to evaluate whether the lira was overvalued before the eve of the 2001 financial crisis in Turkey. Calculated misalignment shows a substantial overvaluation of the lira before the crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 53 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (March)
exchange rates; monetary model; misalignment; Turkey;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Levent, Korap, 2008. "A monetary model of TL/US$ exchange rate: a co-integrating approach," MPRA Paper 20389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Levent, Korap, 2008.
"Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach,"
19659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey, 1987-2003 (in Turkish)," Macroeconomics 0403006, EconWPA, revised 09 Mar 2004.
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