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Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey

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  • U. Ozlale
  • E. Yeldan

Abstract

Turkey has embarked an extensive dis-inflation and stabilization program in December 1999. The programme exclusively relied on a nominally pegged (anchored) exchange rate system for dis-inflation and on fiscal austerity. In February 2001, however, Turkey experienced a severe financial crisis which necessiated the dismantling of the exchange rate anchor and a switch to a regime of free float. This article proposes a new methodology to measure exchange rate misalignment for Turkey over the period January 1992 to December 2001. In a single equation framework, the model estimates the real exchange rate within a time varying parameter model, where a return-to-normality assumption about the parameters is assumed. Contrary to common belief, it is found that, except the initial four months of the stabilization programme, the Turkish lira remained undervalued for most of 2000. Also, one observes a pattern where the lira has been overvalued after the financial crisis of 1994 until 1998, and has displayed a tendency of undervaluation after then.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684042000279735
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 16 ()
Pages: 1839-1849

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:16:p:1839-1849

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References

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  1. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2001. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 492, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 04 May 2004.
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  5. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2006. "Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-563, April.
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  9. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Deniz Atasoy & Sweta C. Saxena, 2006. "Misaligned? Overvalued?. The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(3), pages 29-45, May.
  2. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
  3. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
  4. Tonus, Özgür, 2007. "Gümrük Birliği sonrasında Türkiye'de dışa açıklık ve sanayileşme
    [Openness and industrialization in Turkey after the Customs Union]
    ," MPRA Paper 7121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July.
  6. Kasman, Adnan & Ayhan, Duygu, 2008. "Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 83-92, January.

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