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What Drives the Dynamic Conditional Correlation of Foreign Exchange and Equity Returns?

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  • Vargas, Gregorio A.

Abstract

This paper establishes the link of microstructure and macroeconomic factors to the time-varying conditional correlation of foreign exchange and excess equity returns. By using the proposed DCC model with exogenous variables, capital flows and interest rate differentials are shown to be significant factors in driving this conditional correlation. Furthermore, using this model it provides evidence of the dynamic behavior of global investors as they seek parity in equity returns between home and foreign markets to reduce exchange rate risks.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7174/
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8027/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7174.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7174

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Keywords: uncovered equity parity; order flow; ADCCX;

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
  5. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2006. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," CCSO Working Papers 200602, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  6. Feng, Yuanhua, 2006. "A local dynamic conditional correlation model," MPRA Paper 1592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
  8. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November.
  9. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & McAleer, Michael, 2006. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations in WTI oil forward and futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 114-132, June.
  10. Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University), 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-19, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  11. Matteo Manera & Michael McAleer & Margherita Grasso, 2006. "Modelling time-varying conditional correlations in the volatility of Tapis oil spot and forward returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 525-533.
  12. Robin Brooks & Torsten Sløk & Manmohan S. Kumar & Hali J. Edison, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 01/190, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  14. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Gobbo, 2006. "Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH models for asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 123-130, March.
  15. Hafner, C.M. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "A generalized dynamic conditional correlation model for many asset returns," Econometric Institute Report EI 2003-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
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Cited by:
  1. Koenig, P., 2011. "Modelling Correlation in Carbon and Energy Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1123, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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