The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence
AbstractUsing the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for eleven Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2012/01.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Order flow; microstructure; Asian and Australasian exchange rates; financial crises;
Other versions of this item:
- Hans Jørgen Tranvåg & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper Series 12412, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2012-02-08 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2012-02-08 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2012-02-08 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993.
"Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
- Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000.
"Order Imbalance, Liquidity, and Market Returns,"
University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management
qt7gh9t9w3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution," Working Paper 2011/10, Norges Bank.
- Michael Melvin & Mark P. Taylor, 2009.
"The Crisis in the Foreign Exchange Market,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2707, CESifo Group Munich.
- Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002.
"Informational integration and FX trading,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November.
- Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006.
"Intra-day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the Electronic Broking System,"
CIRJE-F-407, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko, 2006. "Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 637-664, December.
- Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence From the Electronic Broking System," NBER Working Papers 12413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009.
"An information approach to international currencies,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
- Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2005. "An Information Approach to International Currencies," NBER Working Papers 11220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010.
"Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination,"
gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Micro approaches to foreign exchange determination," Working Paper 2011/05, Norges Bank.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009.
"Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: international linkages and American exposure,"
Working Paper Series
2009-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- AndrewK. Rose & MarkM. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, 08.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," CEPR Discussion Papers 7466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
- Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
- Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand," BIS Working Papers 287, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michael R King & Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "The $4 trillion question: what explains FX growth since the 2007 survey?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006.
"Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
- William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010.
"Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013657, December.
- Eva Kislingerová, 2011. "," Ekonomika a Management, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 4.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012.
"Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2011. "Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1599-1624, December.
- Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010.
"A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle,"
2010/26, Norges Bank.
- Breedon, Francis & Rime, Dagfinn & Vitale, Paolo, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.