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The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence

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  • Dagfinn Rime

    ()
    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Hans Jørgen Tranvåg

    ()
    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Using the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for eleven Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2012/01.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_01

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Keywords: Order flow; microstructure; Asian and Australasian exchange rates; financial crises;

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References

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  1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Order Imbalance, Liquidity, and Market Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7gh9t9w3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  3. Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution," Working Paper 2011/10, Norges Bank.
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  5. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November.
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  7. Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
  8. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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  13. Michael R King & Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "The $4 trillion question: what explains FX growth since the 2007 survey?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
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  15. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013657, December.
  16. Eva Kislingerová, 2011. "," Ekonomika a Management, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 4.
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  18. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2011. "Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1599-1624, December.
  19. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Paper 2010/26, Norges Bank.
  20. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
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