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Order Flows and The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy. To do so, I first present a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional models. I then report empirical evidence that strongly supports the presence of the link between the macroeconomy, order flow and high frequency exchange rate returns implied by the model. In fact, my empirical results indicate that between 20 and 30 percent of the variance in excess currency returns over one- and two-month horizons can be linked back to developments in the macroeconomy. This level of explanatory power is an order of magnitude higher than that found in traditional models even the newly developed monetary models incorporating central banks reaction functions. Moreover, it provides a straightforward solution to the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle. Namely, the high frequency behavior of spot exchange rates reflects the flow of new information reaching dealers concerning the slowly evolving state of the macroeconomy, rather than the effects of shocks that drive rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions. Classification-JEL Codes: F3, F4, G1

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~08-08-05.

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Date of creation: 03 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~08-08-05

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
Phone: 202-687-6074
Fax: 202-687-6102
Email:
Web page: http://econ.georgetown.edu/

Order Information:
Postal: Marcia Suss Administrative Officer Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
Email:
Web: http://econ.georgetown.edu/

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Dynamics; The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle; Microstructure; Order Flow.;

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References

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  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Evans, Martin D.D., 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
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  10. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
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  13. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008. "How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
  14. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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  23. Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University), 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-19, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  24. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, 08.
  25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Pre-announced Day-to-day Interventions on the Colombian Exchange Rate," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010767, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
  3. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Ian W. Marsh, 2011. "Order Flows, Fundamentals and Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers 1120, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  4. Andres Felipe García-Suaza & José E. Gómez González, 2011. "A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 008170, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  5. Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange - Looking back and looking forward," Working Paper 2013/12, Norges Bank.
  6. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2013. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," BIS Working Papers 426, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.
  9. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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