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Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data

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  • Berger, David W.
  • Chaboud, Alain P.
  • Chernenko, Sergey V.
  • Howorka, Edward
  • Wright, Jonathan H.

Abstract

We analyze the association between order flow and exchange rates using a new dataset representing a majority of global interdealer transactions in the two most-traded currency pairs at the one minute frequency over a six-year time period. This long span of high-frequency data allows us to gain new insights about the joint behavior of these series. We first confirm the presence of a substantial association between interdealer order flow and exchange rate returns at horizons ranging from 1Â min to two weeks, but find that the association is substantially weaker at longer horizons. We study the time-variation of the association between exchange rate returns and order flow both intradaily and over the long term, and show that the relationship appears to be stronger when market liquidity is lower. Overall, our study supports the view that liquidity effects play an important role in the relationship between order flow and exchange rate changes. This by no means rules out a role for order flow as a channel by which fundamental information is transmitted to the market, as we show that our findings are quite consistent with a recent model by Bacchetta and Van Wincoop (2006: Can information heterogeneity explain the exchange rate determination puzzle? American Economic Review, 96, pp. 552-576.) that combines both liquidity and information effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 93-109

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:75:y:2008:i:1:p:93-109

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March.
  3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  4. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  6. Richard Payne, 2003. "Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp475, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
  8. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51.
  10. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Harald Hau & William Killeen & Michael Moore, 2002. "How has the euro changed the foreign exchange market?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 149-192, 04.
  12. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Gonzalo, J. & Lee, T.H., 1995. "Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships," Papers 38, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  14. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow (July 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-03, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  16. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  17. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An Empirical Study of Liquidity and Information Effects of Order Flow on Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1996. "One Day in June 1993: A Study of the Working of the Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 107-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  20. Carlson, John A. & Lo, Melody, 2006. "One minute in the life of the DM/US$: Public news in an electronic market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1090-1102, November.
  21. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2004. "Macroeconomic Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2623-2654, December.
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