Macroeconomic Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns
AbstractMacroeconomic models of equity returns perform poorly. The proportion of daily index returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, our model includes a concept from microstructure order flow. Order flow is the proximate determinant of price in all microstructure models. We explain aggregate equity returns as well as exchange rates in a model with heterogenous beliefs. Belief changes are shown to be observable through order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from all equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and macroeconomic order flows.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4806.
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-06-14 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-06-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2005-06-14 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2005-06-14 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010.
"Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders,"
Journal of Financial Markets,
Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen FakultÃ¤t der Leibniz UniversitÃ¤t Hannover dp-357, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008.
"Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
- David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," International Finance Discussion Papers 830, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University), 2005.
"Understanding Order Flow,"
gueconwpa~05-05-19, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.