Macroeconomic Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns
AbstractMacroeconomic models of equity returns perform poorly. The proportion of daily index returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, our model includes a concept from microstructure order flow. Order flow is the proximate determinant of price in all microstructure models. We explain aggregate equity returns as well as exchange rates in a model with heterogenous beliefs. Belief changes are shown to be observable through order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from all equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and macroeconomic order flows.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4806.
Date of creation: Dec 2004
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- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-06-14 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-06-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2005-06-14 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2005-06-14 (Macroeconomics)
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