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Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data

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Author Info
David W. Berger
Alain P. Chaboud
Sergey V. Chernenko
Edward Howorka
Jonathan H. Wright

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Abstract

We analyze the association between order flow and exchange rates using a new dataset representing a majority of global interdealer transactions in the two most-traded currency pairs. The data consist of six years (1999-2004) of order flow and exchange rate data for the euro-dollar and dollar-yen currency pairs at the one-minute frequency from EBS, the electronic broking system that now dominates interdealer spot trading in these currency pairs. This long span of high-frequency data allows us to gain new insights about the joint behavior of these series. We first confirm the presence of a substantial association between interdealer order flow and exchange rate returns at frequencies ranging from one minute to one week, but, using our long span of data, we find that the association is weaker at lower frequencies, with far less long-term association between cumulative order flow and long-term exchange rate movements. We study the linearity and time-variation of the association between high-frequency exchange rate returns and order flow, and document an intradaily pattern to the relationship: it is weakest at times when markets are most active. Overall, our study tends to support the view that, while order flow plays a crucial role in high-frequency exchange rate movements, its role in driving long-term fluctuations is much more limited.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 830.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:830

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Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Electronic trading of securities;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Harald Hau & William Killeen & Michael Moore, 2002. "How has the euro changed the foreign exchange market?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 149-192, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An Empirical Study of Liquidity and Information Effects of Order Flow on Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Martin D. D. Evans, 2001. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2004. "Macroeconomic Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence From the Electronic Broking System," NBER Working Papers 12413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in a two-tier market," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements," NBER Working Papers 12682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Trading activity and exchange rates in high-frequency EBS data," International Finance Discussion Papers 903, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alain Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Mico Loretan, 2007. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 905, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Alain Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Mico Loretan, 2008. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," BIS Working Papers 249, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Berger & Alain Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," International Finance Discussion Papers 862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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