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Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure

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Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the recent literature on Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure. Its aim is not to survey the literature, but rather to provide an introductory tour to the main theoretical ideas and empirical results. The central theoretical idea is that trading is an integral part of the process through which information relevant to the pricing of foreign currency becomes embedded in spot rates. Micro-based models study this information aggregation process and produce a rich set of empirical predictions that find strong support in the data. In particular, micro-based models can account for a large proportion of the daily variation in spot rates. They also supply a rationale for the apparent disconnect between spot rates and fundamentals. In terms of forecasting, micro-based models provide out-of-sample forecasting power for spot rates that is an order of magnitude above that usually found in exchange-rate models. Classification-JEL Codes: F3, F4, G1

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~05-05-20.

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Date of creation: 20 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~05-05-20

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Postal: Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
Phone: 202-687-6074
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Web page: http://econ.georgetown.edu/

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Postal: Marcia Suss Administrative Officer Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
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Web: http://econ.georgetown.edu/

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Keywords: Exchange Rates; Microstructure; Information Aggregation; FX Trading.;

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References

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  1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Love, Ryan & Payne, Richard, 2008. "Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 467-488, June.
  5. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  6. Rich Lyons & Martin Evans, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Working Papers 03.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  8. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  10. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
  13. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
  14. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  15. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," NBER Working Papers 11041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
  2. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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