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End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics

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Author Info
Taylor, Mark P.
Schmidt, Markus
Reitz, Stefan

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Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence for Evans and Lyons' (2005b) model of an information aggregation process in FX markets using a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Though customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates over time, our empirical analysis does not support the widespread optimism in the market microstructure literature that customer order flow is the high-powered source of information easily exploitable for short-run speculation. Moreover, commercial customers' order flow produces negative coefficients in contemporaneous return regressions, stressing their role as liquidity providers.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2007,05.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5559

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange; market microstructure; end-user order flow;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor is Near One," NBER Working Papers 10267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ramb, Fred, 2007. "Corporate marginal tax rate, tax loss carryforwards and investment functions: empirical analysis using a large German panel data set," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Faria, Pedro & Schmidt, Tobias, 2007. "International cooperation on innovation: empirical evidence for German and Portuguese firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,30, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Tödter, Karl-Heinz & Manzke, Bernhard, 2007. "The welfare effects of inflation: a cost-benefit perspective," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2007. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Loretan, Michael Stanislaus & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2007. "A note on the coefficient of determination in regression models with infinite-variance variables," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pausch, Thilo, 2007. "Endogenous credit derivatives and bank behavior," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Craig, Ben R. & Dinger, Valeriya, 2008. "Bank mergers and the dynamics of deposit interest rates," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Aoki, Kosuke & Kimura, Takeshi, 2007. "Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus & Taylor , Mark P., 2009. "Financial Intermediation and the Role of Price Discrimination in a Two-Tier Market," MPRA Paper 15602, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Härdle, Wolfgang & Moro, Rouslan A. & Schäfer, Dorothea, 2007. "Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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