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End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics

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  • Taylor, Mark P.
  • Schmidt, Markus
  • Reitz, Stefan

Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence for Evans and Lyons' (2005b) model of an information aggregation process in FX markets using a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Though customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates over time, our empirical analysis does not support the widespread optimism in the market microstructure literature that customer order flow is the high-powered source of information easily exploitable for short-run speculation. Moreover, commercial customers' order flow produces negative coefficients in contemporaneous return regressions, stressing their role as liquidity providers. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2007,05.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5559

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Keywords: Foreign exchange; market microstructure; end-user order flow;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," Working Papers 2009-07, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  2. Tödter, Karl-Heinz & Manzke, Bernhard, 2007. "The welfare effects of inflation: a cost-benefit perspective," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in a two-tier market," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Ben R Craig & Valeriya Dinger, 2008. "Bank mergers and the dynamics of deposit interest rates," Working Paper 0806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2012. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," Working Papers Series 273, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
  7. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Pausch, Thilo, 2007. "Endogenous credit derivatives and bank behavior," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Wolfgang Härdle & Rouslan Moro & Dorothea Schäfer, 2007. "Estimating Probabilities of Default With Support Vector Machines," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Faria, Pedro & Schmidt, Tobias, 2007. "International cooperation on innovation: empirical evidence for German and Portuguese firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,30, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Aoki, Kosuke & Kimura, Takeshi, 2007. "Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  13. Ramb, Fred, 2007. "Corporate marginal tax rate, tax loss carryforwards and investment functions: empirical analysis using a large German panel data set," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Loretan, Michael Stanislaus & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2007. "A note on the coefficient of determination in regression models with infinite-variance variables," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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