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International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: A dynamic panel analysis

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  • Binder, Michael
  • Offermanns, Christian J.
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    Abstract

    In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country’s international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country’s net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country’s effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2007/23.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200723

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    Keywords: Exchange Rate Determination; International Financial Integration; Dynamic Panel Data Models;

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    References

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    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    4. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "New Simple Tests for Panel Cointegration," Working Papers, Lund University, Department of Economics 2005:8, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
    8. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series, IIIS iiisdp126, IIIS.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    10. Breitung, Jörg, 2002. "A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    11. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
    13. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    14. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
    15. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    16. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    19. Michele Cavallo & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 505, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2002.
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    Cited by:
    1. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-32, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2012. "Towards an explanation of cross-country asymmetries in monetary transmission," Discussion Papers 07/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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