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Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines

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Author Info
Härdle, Wolfgang
Moro, Rouslan A.
Schäfer, Dorothea

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Abstract

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of testing our approach on Deutsche Bundesbank data. In particular we discuss the selection of variables and give a comparison with more traditional approaches such as discriminant analysis and the logit regression. The results demonstrate that the SVM has clear advantages over these methods for all variables tested. --

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2007,18.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:6930

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Related research
Keywords: Bankruptcy; Company rating; Default probability; Support vector machines;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. repec:rus:hseeco:318682 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Junni L. Zhang & Wolfgang Härdle, 2008. "The Bayesian Additive Classification Tree Applied to Credit Risk Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2008. "The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.


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