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Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen

Abstract

This study presents indirect evidence of the effectiveness of sterilized interventions in Brazil based on the complete records of daily customer order flow data reported by Brazilian dealers, as well as foreign exchange intervention data over a time span of 10 years (2002-2011). We find that the effect of USD sales by end-users on the BRL/USD was much stronger on days in which the BCB did not intervene in the spot foreign exchange market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 426.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:426

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Keywords: order flow; intervention; exchange rate;

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References

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  1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March.
  4. Marsh, Ian W., 2011. "Order flow and central bank intervention: An empirical analysis of recent Bank of Japan actions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, March.
  5. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2009. "Emerging Floaters: Pass-Throughs and (Some) New Commodity Currencies," WEF Working Papers 0049, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  8. Stefan Reitz & Markus Schmidt & Mark Taylor, 2011. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics - a dealer's perspective," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 153-168.
  9. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Ian W. Marsh, 2011. "Order Flows, Fundamentals and Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers 1120, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  10. Dominguez & K., 1997. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  11. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
  12. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
  13. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Evans, Martin D.D., 2010. "Order flows and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 58-71, January.
  15. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
  16. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2013. "Long-Run Determinants of the Brazilian Real: a closer look at commodities," Working Papers Series 314, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Calebe de Roure & Steven Furnagiev & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "The Microstructure of Exchange Rate Management: FX Intervention and Capital Controls in Brazil," Kiel Working Papers 1865, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Adriana Soares Sales & João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2012. "Coping with a Complex Global Environment: a Brazilian perspective on emerging market issues," Working Papers Series 292, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Jaroslava Durčáková & Ondřej Šíma, 2013. "BRICS: Exchange Rate policy in Context of Internal and External Equilibrium," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(4), pages 7-29.

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