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Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen

Abstract

This study presents indirect evidence of the effectiveness of sterilized interventions in Brazil based on the complete records of daily customer order flow data reported by Brazilian dealers, as well as foreign exchange intervention data over a time span of 10 years (2002-2011). We find that the effect of USD sales by end-users on the BRL/USD was much stronger on days in which the BCB did not intervene in the spot foreign exchange market.

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2013. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," BIS Working Papers 426, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:426
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    9. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Emerging floaters: Pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1580-1595, December.
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    16. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Ian W. Marsh, 2014. "Order Flows, Fundamentals And Exchange Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 251-266, October.
    18. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Gustavo Silva Araujo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2015. "As Atuações Cambiais do Banco Central Afetam as Expectativas de Mercado?," Working Papers Series 393, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Calebe de Roure & Steven Furnagiev & Stefan Reitz, 2015. "The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3617-3632, July.
    3. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2018. "Realized Volatility as an Instrument to Official Intervention," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 259-281, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    4. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2014. "Long‐Run Determinants Of The Brazilian Real: A Closer Look At Commodities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 239-250, October.
    5. Adriana Soares Sales & João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2012. "Coping with a Complex Global Environment: a Brazilian perspective on emerging market issues," Working Papers Series 292, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Pincheira & Juan Manuel Julio & Hernán Rincón & Santiago García-Verdú & Miguel Zerecero & Marco Vega & Erick Lahura & Ramon Moreno, 2014. "The effects of intraday foreign exchange market operations in Latin America: results for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru," Borradores de Economia 849, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Viola, Alessandra Pasqualina & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & da Silveira Barbedo, Claudio Henrique, 2019. "Foreign exchange interventions in Brazil and their impact on volatility: A quantile regression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 251-263.
    8. Martín Tobal & Renato Yslas, 2018. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 221-257, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    9. Jaroslava Durčáková & Ondřej Šíma, 2013. "BRICS: Exchange Rate policy in Context of Internal and External Equilibrium [BRICS: Kurzová politika Brazílie v kontextu vnitřní a vnější rovnováhy]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(4), pages 7-29.
    10. Ken Miyajima & Carlos Montoro, 2013. "Impact of foreign exchange interventions on exchange rate expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 39-54, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. João Barata R. B. Barroso, 2014. "Behavioral Models of the Foreign Exchange Market: is there any empirical content?," Working Papers Series 364, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Madhusudan Mohanty & Bat-el Berger, 2013. "Central bank views on foreign exchange intervention," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 55-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2016. "The High Frequency Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements in the Brazilian Futures Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.
    14. Nuttathum Chutasripanich & James Yetman, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention: strategies and effectiveness," BIS Working Papers 499, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Catalán-Herrera, Juan, 2016. "Foreign exchange market interventions under inflation targeting: The case of Guatemala," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-114.
    16. Marcio Garcia & Marcelo Medeiros & Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos, 2014. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures markets," Textos para discussão 623, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).

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    order flow; intervention; exchange rate;
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