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Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen

Abstract

This study presents indirect evidence of the effectiveness of sterilized interventions in Brazil based on the complete records of daily customer order flow data reported by Brazilian dealers, as well as foreign exchange intervention data over a time span of 10 years (2002-2011). We find that the effect of USD sales by end-users on the BRL/USD was much stronger on days in which the BCB did not intervene in the spot foreign exchange market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 426.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:426

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Keywords: order flow; intervention; exchange rate;

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References

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  1. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
  2. Martin Evans, 2008. "Order Flows and The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," Working Papers gueconwpa~08-08-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
  9. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Ian W. Marsh, 2011. "Order Flows, Fundamentals and Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers 1120, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  11. Geir Høidal Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2004. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 391, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  12. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
  13. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  14. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Emerging Floaters: pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies," Working Papers Series 224, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Stefan Reitz & Markus Schmidt & Mark Taylor, 2011. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics - a dealer's perspective," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 153-168.
  16. Marsh, Ian W., 2011. "Order flow and central bank intervention: An empirical analysis of recent Bank of Japan actions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Jaroslava Durčáková & Ondřej Šíma, 2013. "BRICS: Exchange Rate policy in Context of Internal and External Equilibrium," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(4), pages 7-29.
  2. Calebe de Roure & Steven Furnagiev & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "The Microstructure of Exchange Rate Management: FX Intervention and Capital Controls in Brazil," Kiel Working Papers 1865, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2013. "Long-Run Determinants of the Brazilian Real: a closer look at commodities," Working Papers Series 314, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Adriana Soares Sales & João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2012. "Coping with a Complex Global Environment: a Brazilian perspective on emerging market issues," Working Papers Series 292, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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