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An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

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  • Mario Cerrato
  • Nicholas Sarantis
  • Alex Saunders

Abstract

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new propreitary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make three contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macroeconomic variables. Second, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the microstructure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2009_25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision: Feb 2010
Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2009_25

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Keywords: Customer order flow; exchange rates; microstructure; forecasting;

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References

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  1. Takatoshi Ito Richard K. Lyons and Michael T. Melvin., 1997. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-270, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," International Finance Discussion Papers 830, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  17. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
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  22. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
  2. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2014. "Asymmetric responses of ask and bid quotes to information in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-204.
  3. Ülkü, Numan & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types: Looking into the day using daily data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2733-2749.
  4. Chen, Shikuan & Chien, Chih-Chung & Chang, Ming-Jen, 2012. "Order flow, bid–ask spread and trading density in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 597-612.
  5. Masayuki Susai & Yushi Yoshida, 2012. "Central bank interventions and limit order behavior in the foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 56, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.

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