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Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz Atasoy

    (Undersecretariat of Customs of Turkey)

  • Sweta C. Saxena

    (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract

There is a consensus among scholars that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey and finds that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by the Turkish exporters that lira’s overvaluation is responsible for Turkey’s uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz Atasoy & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira," International Finance 0508002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0508002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    12. Ms. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Mr. Enrique Alberola Ila & Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 1999/175, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    2. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201769, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    4. Kiptui, Moses C. & Ndirangu, Lydia, 2015. "Determinants of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and its Misalignment in Kenya: A Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Approach," MPRA Paper 70542, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2016.
    5. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
    6. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
    7. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Toraganlı, Nazlı & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2016. "Exchange rates and firm survival: An examination with Turkish firm-level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 433-443.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkish lira; overvaluation; equilibrium real exchange rate; misalignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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