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Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

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Author Info

  • Deniz Atasoy

    (Undersecretariat of Customs of Turkey)

  • Sweta C. Saxena

    (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract

There is a consensus among scholars that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey and finds that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by the Turkish exporters that lira’s overvaluation is responsible for Turkey’s uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0508/0508002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0508002.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 07 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0508002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Turkish lira; overvaluation; equilibrium real exchange rate; misalignment;

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References

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  1. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
  4. Asikoglu, Y. & Uctum, M., 1989. "A Critical Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Policy In Turkey," Cahiers de recherche 8919, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
  6. Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
  7. Ahmet N. Kipici, 1996. "Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 9615, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Giyas Gökkent & Carlos Moslares & Rafael Amiel-Saenz, 2003. "Failure of an Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Plan in Turkey," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 35-67, January.
  9. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  10. Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  12. K. Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Ahmet Yucel, 2002. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1807-1812.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balázs Égert, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  2. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
  3. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
  4. Sengül Dagdeviren & Ayla Ogu? Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Misalignment Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: the Case of Turkey," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 81-98.

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