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Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation

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  • Mete Feridun

Abstract

This paper investigates the hypothesis that there is a causal relation between speculative pressure and real exchange rate overvaluation, banking-sector fragility, and the level of international reserves in Turkey. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing procedure and Granger causality within vector error-correction models (VECM) are applied to the period after the liberalization of capital flows (August 1989-August 2006). The results of the ARDL bounds test support the theory that exchange market pressure is in a long-run equilibrium relation with the three hypothesized variables over the sample period. On the other hand, the results of the short-run and long-run Granger causality tests indicate the existence of Granger causality running from the three variables to exchange market pressure. The findings further suggest that a feedback relation exists between banking-sector fragility and exchange market pressure.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 45 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 65-81

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:2:p:65-81

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: ARDL bounds test; exchange market pressure; Granger causality;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Scott W Hegerty, 2010. "Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2210-2219.
  2. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
  3. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.

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