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Exchange market pressure: some caveats in empirical applications

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  • Simone Bertoli
  • Giampiero Gallo
  • Giorgio Ricchiuti

Abstract

The Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, developed by Eichengreen et al. (1994), is widely used as a tool to signal whether pressure on a currency is softened or warded off through monetary authorities' interventions or, rather, a currency crisis has originated. In this article we show how the index is sensitive to some assumptions behind the aggregation of the information available (exchange rates, interest rates and reserves), especially when emerging countries are involved. Specifically, we address the way exchange rate variations are computed and the impact of different definitions of the reserves, and we question the constancy of the weights adopted. These issues compound with the choice of a fixed threshold when crisis episodes are identified through the EMP index. As a result, one should exert caution in subsequent econometric analyses where a dependent binary variable is built to identify crisis periods.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
Pages: 2435-2448

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:19:p:2435-2448

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  1. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "On currency crises and contagion," Working Paper Series 0139, European Central Bank.
  2. Simone Bertoli & Giampiero Gallo & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2006. "Exchange Market Pressure: Some Caveats In Empirical Applications," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_17, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  3. Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June.
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  9. Fasika Damte Haile & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 554-570, 09.
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  11. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
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  13. Evan Tanner, 2001. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 2.
  14. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
  2. Stavarek, Daniel, 2010. "Determinants of the exchange market pressure in the euro-candidate countries," MPRA Paper 26933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011030 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Simone Bertoli & Giampiero Gallo & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2010. "Exchange market pressure: some caveats in empirical applications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2435-2448.
  5. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Luis Pereira & Afonso Reis, 2009. "Comparing Exchange Market Pressure across Five African Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 645-682, November.
  6. Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "How integrated are the exchange markets of the Baltic Sea Region? An examination of market pressure and its contagion," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 109-122, December.
  7. Selim Elekdag & M. Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2009. "Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 09/40, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ahmad K Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2013. "Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_03.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

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