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Exchange market pressure: some caveats in empirical applications

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  • Simone Bertoli
  • Giampiero Gallo
  • Giorgio Ricchiuti

Abstract

The Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, developed by Eichengreen et al. (1994), is widely used as a tool to signal whether pressure on a currency is softened or warded off through monetary authorities' interventions or, rather, a currency crisis has originated. In this article we show how the index is sensitive to some assumptions behind the aggregation of the information available (exchange rates, interest rates and reserves), especially when emerging countries are involved. Specifically, we address the way exchange rate variations are computed and the impact of different definitions of the reserves, and we question the constancy of the weights adopted. These issues compound with the choice of a fixed threshold when crisis episodes are identified through the EMP index. As a result, one should exert caution in subsequent econometric analyses where a dependent binary variable is built to identify crisis periods.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
Pages: 2435-2448

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:19:p:2435-2448

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Miguel A. Savastano & Michael Mussa, 1999. "The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 99/104, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
  5. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
  6. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Fasika Damte Haile & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 554-570, 09.
  9. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
  10. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
  13. Evan Tanner, 2001. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 2.
  14. Engle III, Robert F., 2003. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-4, Nobel Prize Committee.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011030 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Luis Pereira & Afonso Reis, 2009. "Comparing Exchange Market Pressure across Five African Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 645-682, November.
  3. Ahmad K Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2013. "Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_03.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  4. Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "How integrated are the exchange markets of the Baltic Sea Region? An examination of market pressure and its contagion," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 109-122, December.
  5. Stavarek, Daniel, 2010. "Determinants of the exchange market pressure in the euro-candidate countries," MPRA Paper 26933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
  7. Selim Elekdag & M. Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2009. "Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 09/40, International Monetary Fund.

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