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The relationship between the real exchange rate and balance of payments: empirical evidence for China from cointegration and causality testing

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between the renminbi real exchange rate and China's foreign exchange reserves using cointegration and Granger causality testing. The main findings are that in the long run foreign exchange reserves Granger cause the real exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from foreign exchange reserves to the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 287-291

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:5:p:287-291

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  1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  2. Maozu Lu & Zhichao Zhang, 2003. "Exchange rate reform and its inflationary consequences: an empirical analysis for China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 189-199.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633239, April.
  6. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February.
  7. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1991. "Increasing Financial Market Integration, Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 96, OECD Publishing.
  8. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633659, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Katircioglu, Salih & Eminer, Fehiman & Aga, Mehmet & Ozyigit, Ahmet, 2010. "Trade and Growth in the Pacific Islands - Empirical Evidence from the Bounds Test to Level Relationships and Granger Causality Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 88-101, December.
  2. Kasman, Adnan & Ayhan, Duygu, 2008. "Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 83-92, January.
  3. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
  4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves: empirical evidence from China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 639-651.
  5. Salih Katircioğlu & Sami Fethi & Hamit Caner, 2014. "Testing the higher education-led growth hypothesis in a small island: an empirical investigation from a new version of the Solow growth model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 729-744, March.

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