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A Phillips Curve for China

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Author Info
Scheibe, Jörg
Vines, David

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Abstract

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly data from 1988 to 2002, we estimate a vertical long-run Phillips curve for China and show that the output gap, the exchange rate, and inflation expectations play important roles in explaining inflation. We adjust for structural change in the economy where possible and estimate regressions for rolling sample windows in order to test for and uncover gradual structural change. We evaluate a number of alternative output gap estimates and find that output gaps which are derived from production function estimations for the Chinese economy are of more use in estimating a Phillips curve than output gaps derived from simple statistical trends. Partially forward-looking Phillips curves provide a better fit than backward-looking ones. The identification of a non-increasing exchange rate effect on inflation during a period of large import growth hints at increased pricing to market behaviour by importers. This result is relevant to policies regarding possible exchange rate liberalization in China.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4957.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4957

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Related research
Keywords: China; monetary policy; output gap; Phillips curve; structural change;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard CK Burdekin & Ilan Noy, 2005. "What Has Driven Chinese Monetary Policy Since 1990? Investigating the People's Bank's Policy Rule," Economics Study Area Working Papers 85, East-West Center, Economics Study Area. [Downloadable!]
  2. Funke, Michael, 2005. "Inflation in mainland China – modelling a roller coaster ride," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Pami Dua, 2009. "Determination of Inflation in an Open Economy Phillips Curve Framework: The Case of Developed and Developing Asian Countries," Working Papers id:1973, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Aaron Mehrotra & Tuomas Peltonen & Alvaro Santos Rivera, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective," Working Paper Series 829, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
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