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What Has Driven Chinese Monetary Policy Since 1990? Investigating the People's Bank's Policy Rule

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Author Info
Richard CK Burdekin () (Jonathan B. Lovelace Professor of Economics, Claremont McKenna)
Ilan Noy () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii)
Abstract

Post-1990 Chinese monetary policy is modeled with a McCallum-type rule that takes into account the People's Bank of China's emphasis on targeting the rate of money supply growth. People's Bank policy appears responsive to the gap between target and actual nominal GDP as well as to external pressures. Additional cointegration analysis yields estimates of the gap between estimated money demand and actual money supply that appear to track the inflationary trends evident over our sample period. Chinese inflation and monetary policy outcomes seem reasonably captured using a standard monetary approach, therefore, without the need to appeal to China-specific "structural" factors.

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Paper provided by East-West Center, Economics Study Area in its series Economics Study Area Working Papers with number 85.

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Length: pages 24
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp85

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  4. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2004. "Money and price relationship in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 225-247, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "Income Velocity and Institutional Change: Some New Time Series Evidence, 1870-1986," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 377-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," NBER Working Papers 4449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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