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Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data

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Author Info
Eric Jondeau (Banque de France & Université de Paris 12)
Hervé Le Bihan (Banque de France)

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Abstract

The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve (NKPC) states that inflation has a purely forward-looking dynamics. In this paper, we test whether European and US inflation dynamics can be described by this model. For this purpose, we estimate hybrid Phillips curves, which include both backward and forward-looking components, for major European countries, the euro area, and the US. Estimation is performed using the GMM technique as well as the ML approach. We examine the sensitivity of the results to the choice of output gap or marginal cost as the driving variable, and test the stability of the obtained specifications. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, in all countries, the NKPC has to be augmented by additional lags and leads of inflation, in contrast to the prediction of the core model. Second, the fraction of backward-looking price setters is large (in most cases, more than 50 percent), suggesting only limited differences between the US and the euro area. Finally, our preferred specification includes marginal cost in the case of the US and the UK, and output gap in the euro area.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0111005.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 27 Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0111005

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Related research
Keywords: Forward-looking Phillips curve; euro area; GMM estimator; ML estimator.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. André Kurmann, 2004. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Theories with an Application to New Keynesian Pricing," Macroeconomics 0409028, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Nicoletta Batini, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe : does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gautier, E., 2008. "Les ajustements microéconomiques des prix : une synthèse des modèles théoriques et résultats empiriques," Documents de Travail 211, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  7. Florian PELGRIN & Alain GUAY & Richard LUGER, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An empirical assessment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 418, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 511, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Aaron Mehrotra & Tuomas Peltonen & Alvaro Santos Rivera, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective," Working Paper Series 829, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Paloviita , Maritta, 2005. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Research Discussion Papers 22/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Andrea Vaona, 2006. "Merging the Purchasing Power Parity and the Phillips Curve Literatures: Regional Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 33, Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Mortage interest rate dispersion in the euro area," Working Paper Series 734, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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