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  • J. James Reade
  • Ulrich Volz

Abstract

This article uses automatic model selection procedures, based on the gernal-to-specific approach, to investigate inflation in China. A novelty of this article is the use of a technique called impulse indicator saturation which allows us to uncover instabilities and to specify a general model and select down to a more specific model that best explains inflation in China. By and large, our findings suggest that China has been able to insulate itself against shocks from the US, although (maybe surprisingly) monetary growth in Europe seems to have an effect. Nonetheless, the main factors impacting Chinese inflation appear to be domestic, names GDP growth and money growth.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/11-18.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-18.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:11-18

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Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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Keywords: Chinese inflation; dollar peg; automatic model selection procedure;

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  1. Spanos, Aris, 1994. "On Modeling Heteroskedasticity: The Student's t and Elliptical Linear Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 286-315, June.
  2. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression estimator," Economics Papers 2008-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. BAUWENS, Luc & SUCARRAT, Genaro, . "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2234, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China – a regional perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1943, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2010. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 232, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  9. Nymoen, Ragnar & L. Castle, Jennifer & A. Doornik, Jurgen & F. Hendry, David, 2010. "Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Memorandum 21/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  10. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2010. "Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg," Discussion Papers 2010/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  11. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
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