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The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited

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  • Boug, Pål
  • Cappelen, Adne
  • Swensen, Anders Rygh
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    Abstract

    Several authors have questioned the evidence claimed by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí et al. (2001) that a hybrid version of the new Keynesian Phillips curve approximates European and US inflation dynamics quite well. We re-examine the evidence using the vector autoregressive framework and likelihood based methods, paying particular attention to the stationary and nonstationary, and possibly cointegrated, nature of variables involved. Our results show that the exact as well as the inexact form of the hybrid NKPC are clearly at odds with the European data. On the other hand, Galí and Gertler (1999) finding that the inexact hybrid NKPC is a "good first approximation" to the US inflation dynamics seems less at odds with the data. However, the assumption of the model that the stochastic term forms a sequence of innovations may be problematic as we find indication of autocorrelation in the estimated residuals. The exact form of the hybrid NKPC is firmly rejected by the US data.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 858-874

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:858-874

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

    Related research

    Keywords: European and US inflation The new Keynesian Phillips curve Exact and inexact rational expectations Vector autoregressive models Likelihood based methods;

    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio, 2011. "Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method," MPRA Paper 28411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    3. Andreas Benedictow & Pål Boug, 2013. "Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 757-788, October.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, . "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 84656, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.

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