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Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data

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Author Info
Juselius, Mikael
Abstract

I apply the Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2004) method of testing exact rational expectations within the cointegrated VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) model, to testing the New Keynesian (NK) model. This method permits the testing of rational expectation systems, while allowing for non-stationary data. The NK-model is tested on quarterly U.S. and Euro area time series data. I find that the restrictions implied by the core equations of the NK-model are rejected regardless of sample periods or measures of real marginal costs. I also provide a tentative explanation of the results favored by previous researches.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-23.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7285

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Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips curve; cointegration; vector autoregressive model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  3. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Charles R. Nelson & Jaejoon Lee, 2007. "Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 161-178. [Downloadable!]
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  7. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
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  14. Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Does Labor's Share Drive Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 297-312, April.
  16. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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