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Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

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Author Info
Gunnar Bardsen
Eilev S. Jansen
Ragnar Nymoen

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Abstract

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPCM) as an empirical model of European inflation. The favourable evidence for NPCMs on euro-area data reported in earlier studies is shown to depend on specific choices made about estimation methodology. The NPCM can be re-interpreted as a highly restricted equilibrium correction model. We also report the outcome of tests based on variable addition and encompassing of existing models. The results show that economists should not accept the NPCM too readily. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 66 (2004)
Issue (Month): s1 (09)
Pages: 671-686
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:s1:p:671-686

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  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties," Kiel Working Papers 1350, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1326, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Marika Karanassou & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Philips Curve Revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1349, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve revisited," Discussion Papers 500, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 13404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Muto, Ichiro, 2007. "Estimating a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a Corrected Measure of Real Marginal Cost: Evidence in Japan," MPRA Paper 4662, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Discussion Papers 2008-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 496, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 460, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  10. Q. Farooq Akram & Gunnar Bärdsen & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Monetary policy and asset prices: to respond or not?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 279-292. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2008. "Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 94, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Swensen, 2006. "Expectations and regime robustness in price formation: evidence from vector autoregressive models and recursive methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 821-845, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Roger Bjørnstad and Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Will it float? The New Keynesian Phillips curve tested on OECD panel data," Discussion Papers 463, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fanelli, Luca, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve through Vector Autoregressive models: Results from the Euro area," MPRA Paper 1617, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Janko Gorter, 2005. "Subjective Expectations and New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Europe," DNB Working Papers 049, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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