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The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation

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  • Russell, Bill
  • Banerjee, Anindya

Abstract

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve. We estimate a Phillips curve model taking into account the non-stationary properties in inflation and identify a small but significant positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results also provide some evidence that the trade-off between inflation and the rate of unemployment in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1792-1815

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1792-1815

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Inflation Unemployment Long-run Phillips curve Business cycle GMM;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area," Economics Working Papers 2012-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
  3. Steffen Ahrens, Dennis Snower, 2012. "Envy, Guilt, and the Phillips Curve," Kiel Working Papers 1754, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Testing The Existence And Stability Of Phillips Curve In Romania," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 10(1), pages 67-74.
  5. Girardi, Riccardo & Paruolo, Paolo, 2013. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 643-653.
  6. Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Phillips curve in a small open economy: A time series exploration of North Cyprus," MPRA Paper 28397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Agnieszka Leszczynska & Katarzyna Hertel, 2013. "Inflation persistence – a disaggregated approach," EcoMod2013 5692, EcoMod.
  8. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2011. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 252, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
  10. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio & Esposito, Piero, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of the n ew Keynesian Phillips curve for Australia," MPRA Paper 29242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Bill Russell, 2007. "Non-Stationary Inflation and Panel Estimates of United States Short and Long-run Phillips curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 200, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.

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