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The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

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Author Info
Gunnar Bårdsen () (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
Eilev S. Jansen () (Norges Bank and Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
Ragnar Nymoen () (Department of Economics, University of Oslo)

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Abstract

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) as an empirical model of European inflation. We show that existing evidence reported in favour of the NPC on Euro-area and country data is due to a corroborative research strategy. In particular, goodness-of-fit is a weak criterion, since the NPC-fit is well approximated by a random walk. Instead we report the outcome of more critical tests, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized.Finally, encompassing tests are applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and Norway.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 2102.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 18 Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:2102

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Related research
Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips curves Euro inflation UK inflation Norwegian inflation Monetary policy Dynamic stability conditions Evaluation Encompassing tests

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 2265, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU Exist?," IZA Discussion Papers 876, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Marika Karanassou & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Philips Curve Revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1349, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Results For Luxembourg," BCL working papers cahier_etude_11, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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