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The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU Exist?

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Author Info
Karanassou, Marika (Queen Mary, University of London)
Sala, Hector (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Snower, Dennis J. () (Birkbeck College, University of London, CEPR and IZA Bonn)

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Abstract

This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the implied long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our results suggest that the tradeoff is far from vertical. We also find that wage persistence plays a larger role than price persistence in generating the tradeoff, but that the two forms of persistence are complementary in giving monetary policy its long-run real effects. Our results call for a reassessment of the European macroeconomic experience.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 876.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp876

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Related research
Keywords: inflation; unemployment; Phillips curve; nominal inertia; monetary policy; business cycles; forward-looking expectations; homogeneous dynamic panels; panel unit root tests;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J., 1999. "Price Dynamics and Production Lags," IZA Discussion Papers 33, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1326, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Steinar Holden, 2004. "Wage Formation under Low Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2008. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1441, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Heinz Handler, 2004. "From Hard Currency Policy to Monetary Union," Macroeconomics 0408008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Peter Funk & Bettina Kromen, 2006. "Short-term price rigidity in an endogenous growth model: Non-Superneutrality and a non-vertical long-term Phillips-curve," Working Paper Series in Economics 29, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Janet L. Yellen, 2004. "Stabilization policy: a reconsideration," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 1. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Beissinger, Thomas, 2004. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrea Vaona & Dennis Snower, 2006. "Increasing Returns to Scale and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Kiel Working Papers 1277, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library. [Downloadable!]
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