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An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve

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Author Info

  • Snower, Dennis J.

    ()
    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

  • Karanassou, Marika

    ()
    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

The paper examines how the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff depends on the degree to which wage-price decisions are backward- versus forward-looking. When economic agents, facing time-contingent, staggered nominal contracts, have a positive rate of time preference, the current wage and price levels depend more heavily on past variables (e.g. past wages and prices) than on future variables. Consequently, the long-run Phillips curve becomes downward-sloping and, indeed, quit flat for plausible parameter values. This paper provides an intuitive account of how this long-run Phillips curve arises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 635.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp635

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation-unemployment tradeoff; wage-price staggering; monetary policy; forward- and backward-looking wage-price behavior; traditional and New Phillips curve;

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References

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  1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  2. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 646, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May.
  5. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  7. Ascari, G. & Rankin, N., 2000. "Staggered Wages and Output Dynamics under Disinflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 557, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  11. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  12. Ascari, G., 1997. "Optimizing Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 486, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
  14. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
  15. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
  17. K. Huang & Z. Liu, . "Staggered price-setting, staggered wage-setting, and business cycle persistence," Working Papers 2000-28, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang & Bode, Oliver, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-070, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Franz, Wolfgang, 2003. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-35, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Amber, 2011. "The South Asian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Gordon Triangle," MPRA Paper 34734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.

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