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An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve

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Author Info
Marika Karanassou () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Dennis J. Snower (Birkbeck College)

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Abstract

The paper examines how the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff depends on the degree to which wage-price decisions are backward- versus forward-looking. When economic agents, facing time-contingent, staggered nominal contracts, have a positive rate of time preference, the current wage and price levels depend more heavily on past variables (e.g. past wages and prices) than on future variables. Consequently, the long-run Phillips curve becomes downward-sloping and, indeed, quite flat for plausible parameter values. This paper provides an intuitive account of how this long-run Phillips curve arises.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 478.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp478

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation-unemployment tradeoff Wage-price staggering Monetary policy Forward- and backward-looking wage-price behavior Traditional and New Phillips curve

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. John B. Taylor, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," NBER Reprints 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Other versions:
  2. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 646, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2002. "Staggered wages and output dynamics under disinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 653-680, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John B. Taylor, 1980. "Output and Price Stability: An International Comparison," NBER Reprints 0113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Ascari, Guido, 2000. "Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 664-86, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jordi Gali, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang & Bode, Oliver, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-070, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 9(4), pages 1147-1147. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernd Fitzenberger & Wolfgang Franz & Oliver Bode, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1344, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Franz, Wolfgang, 2003. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-35, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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