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The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany

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  • Bernd Fitzenberger

    ()
    (Albert-Ludwigs-Uni. Freiburg)

  • Wolfgang Franz

    ()
    (ZEW Mannheim)

  • Oliver Bode

    ()
    (Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden)

Abstract

This paper provides new estimates of a time-varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification using two alternative estimators, the Kalman-Filter and the partially linearmodel. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sumof coefficients associated with expected inflation is far below unity, whatever measure of expected inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one estimates the unemployment rate that is compatible with a tolerable inflation rate of say 2 percent following roughly the inflation target put forward by the European Central Bank. The estimates presented in this paper suggest that the NAIRU compatible with 2 percent inflation in Germany is currently around 7 percent if the definition of unemployment follows the concept of the ILO. In contrast to the consensus in the literature, our estimates suggest furthermore that the NAIRU inGermany has not increased since the early 1990’s.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 228 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5+6 (December)
Pages: 465-496

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:228:y:2008:i:5-6:p:465-496

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Keywords: NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; Phillips curve; Okun's Law; German unification; Kalman-Filter; partially linear model;

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References

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  1. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Working Paper Series 0065, European Central Bank.
  2. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
  3. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2006. "Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 409-429, 09.
  5. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes," NBER Working Papers 4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  10. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Franz, Wolfgang, 2003. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-35, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  12. Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 357-379, March.
  13. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
  14. Bernd Fitzenberger & Wolfgang Franz & Oliver Bode, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1344, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Akerlof, George A., 2001. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2001-4, Nobel Prize Committee.
  17. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  19. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July.
  20. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  21. Snower, Dennis J. & Karanassou, Marika, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 635, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  22. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Quaas, Georg & Klein, Mathias, 2010. "Der Beitrag alternativer NAIRU-Kurven zur Erklärung der Inflation
    [The Contribution of Alternative NAIRU-curves to the Explanation of Inflation]
    ," MPRA Paper 26176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Bernd Fitzenberger & Wolfgang Franz & Oliver Bode, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1344, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2008. "Monetary Policy and European Unemployment," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp08002, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
  4. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
  5. Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2008. "Nach der Reform ist vor der Reform? Eine arbeitsökonomische Analyse ausgewählter Aspekte der Hartz-Reformen," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-011 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
  7. Gebhard Flaig & Horst Rottmann, 2011. "Labour Market Institutions and Unemployment. An International Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 3558, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Werner Smolny, 2009. "Wage Adjustment, Competitiveness and Unemployment – East Germany after Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(2-3), pages 130-145, June.
  9. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan’s Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
  10. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
  11. Marcel Garz & Artur Tarassow, . "Does an expanding low-pay sector decrease structural unemployment? Evidence from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201104, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  12. Wolfgang Pollan, . "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.

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