Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Estimating Pakistan’s Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Farzana Shaheen

    (School of Social Sciences Federal Urdu University of Arts, Sciences and Technology Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Azad Haider

    (School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Sajid Amin Javed

    (School of Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This paper envisages estimating the Time-Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (TV-NAIRU) as an unobserved stochastic variable for Pakistan over the time period 1973-74 to 2007-08 using Kalman filter. Results of the study are evident that TV-NAIRU increased from 5.3 percent (1990-91) to 8.12 percent (2004-05) and falls to 6.17 percent again in 2007-08 which is above the actual unemployment rate. The results also indicate that the NAIRU is a relevant concept and the unemployment gap should be one of the factors considered when assessing inflationary pressure in Pakistan.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/43/pdf
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/43/pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 172-179

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2011-04-4

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econjournals.com

Related research

Keywords: Pakistan; Unemployment; Inflation; NAIRU; Phillips Curve;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  3. Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, 05.
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  5. Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, 2003. "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England.
  6. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang & Bode, Oliver, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-070, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1998. "A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 74, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Gustav Horn & Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2007. "Estimating Germany's Potential Output," IMK Working Paper 02-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  9. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2009. "The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia," Working Papers 2009/02, Latvijas Banka.
  10. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
  11. Natan P. Epstein & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2010. "Estimating Poland's Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 10/15, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2006. "Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 409-429, 09.
  13. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2011-04-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.