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Estimating Germany's Potential Output

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Author Info

  • Gustav Horn

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Camille Logeay

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Silke Tober

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

Abstract

Potential output measures a country's attainable aggregate living standard and is thus one of the most important categories of economics. It is also a key indicator for monetary and fiscal policy. Despite its prominence, however, potential output is a difficult concept to pinpoint both theoretically and even more so empirically. The article discusses the reasons for the marked revisions of potential output estimates by major international organisations. The authors then present the results of our attempts to quantify Germany's potential output based on a production function approach coupled with the Kalman-filter technique to estimate the NAIRU. The authors find that potential output and potential output growth greatly depend on how the NAIRU and potential total factor productivity are modelled. Given the difficulties involved in robustly estimating potential output, especially in real time, economic policy makers need to learn to pursue their policy objectives without reference to this variable.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 02-2007.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:02-2007

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Keywords: Potential Output; Nairu; Kalman-filter; revisions;

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References

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  1. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Economics Working Paper Archive 475, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  2. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  3. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 35, OECD Publishing.
  4. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
  5. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
  7. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
  10. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Sabine Stephan, 2013. "Krise überwunden? Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2013/2014," IMK Report 86-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  2. Truger, Achim & Will, Henner, 2012. "The German 'debt brake': A shining example for European fiscal policy?," IPE Working Papers 15/2012, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
  3. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan’s Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
  4. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  5. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2008. "Fiscal policy in the macroeconomic policy mix: A Critique of the New Consensus Model and a comparison of macroeconomic policies in France, Germany, the UK and Sweden from a Post-Keynesian perspective," IMK Working Paper 03-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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