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The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia

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Author Info
Aleksejs Melihovs
Anna Zasova

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Abstract

Inflation and its dynamics are among the most important indicators in the focus of such economic agents as producers, consumers, investors, and monetary and fiscal policy makers. Risks of high inflation or deflation enhance the need to profoundly investigate factors and causes that could underpin materialisation of such risks in the economy and to seek for steps to avert adverse effects of unwelcome inflationary dynamics. Optimal capacity utilisation is one of the ways to escape endogenous pressures that increase inflation or cause deflation. The study pursues the aim to assess short-term relationships between the capacity utilisation rate and inflation. The authors have set a target to determine the capacity utilisation rate at which no pressure is exerted upon inflation and to show whether the capacity utilisation rate of the Latvian economy was an underlying factor that caused a rise in inflation after the EU accession.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2009/02.

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Date of creation: 28 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200902

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Related research
Keywords: NAIRU; NAIRCU; Kalman filter;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.


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