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Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine

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Abstract

In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021.

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  • Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp21-2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; unemployment; NAIRU; Kalman filter; Beveridge curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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