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Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia

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  • Aleksejs Melihovs
  • Anna Zasova

Abstract

The current paper aims at estimating the formation mechanism of business inflation expectations to find out how the latter affect the inflation dynamics. To attain this goal, the authors estimated the traditional Phillips curve, new Keynesian Phillips curve and hybrid Phillips curve. The results obtained testify to a better explanatory power to describe the dynamics of Latvia's core inflation of the hybrid Phillips curve compared with the traditional and new Keynesian Phillips curves. Moreover, the outcomes of the research indicate that companies in Latvia adjust their output prices quite frequently implying that the pass-through of changes in inflation expectations to actual prices is quite prompt.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2007/03.

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Date of creation: 17 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200703

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Related research

Keywords: Phillips curve; new Keynesian Phillips curve; hybrid Phillips curve; inflation persistence;

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References

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  1. Rumler, Fabio, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0496, European Central Bank.
  2. John B. Taylor, 1998. "Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 6754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Papers w200506, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. John M. Roberts, 2001. "How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  7. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
  8. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
  9. Paloviita , Maritta & Virén , Matti, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland.
  10. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December.
  11. Paloviita , Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
  12. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2001. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  15. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
  16. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  17. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 0441, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2009. "The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia," Working Papers 2009/02, Latvijas Banka.
  2. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Krista Kalnberzina, 2010. "Price Setting Behaviour in Latvia: Descriptive Evidence from CPI Microdata," Discussion Papers 2010/01, Latvijas Banka.

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